CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 1 · ACC · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
North Carolina @ TCU7.8 pt gap
Model vs mktTCU -14.3 · mkt TCU -6.5
LeanTCU -6.5
Best priceTCU -6.5 -110best of 8
WinTCU 84%
Clemson @ LSU7.7 pt gap
Model vs mktLSU -3.3 · mkt LSU -11.0
LeanClemson +11.0
Best priceClemson +12 -109best of 8
WinLSU 59%
Colorado @ Georgia Tech7.3 pt gap
Model vs mktGeorgia Tech -14.6 · mkt Georgia Tech -7.3
LeanGeorgia Tech -7.3
Best priceGeorgia Tech -7 -106best of 7
WinGeorgia Tech 85%
Louisville @ Ole Miss7.3 pt gap
Model vs mktOle Miss -13.8 · mkt Ole Miss -6.5
LeanOle Miss -6.5
Best priceOle Miss -4.5 -110best of 6
WinOle Miss 84%
Akron @ Wake Forest6.8 pt gap
Model vs mktWake Forest -15.7 · mkt Wake Forest -22.5
LeanAkron +22.5
Best priceAkron +22.5 -112best of 7
WinWake Forest 87%
SMU @ Florida State5.7 pt gap
Model vs mktFlorida State -3.2 · mkt Florida State +2.5
LeanFlorida State +2.5
Best priceFlorida State +3 -111best of 5
WinFlorida State 59%
Hawai'i @ Stanford5.7 pt gap
Model vs mktHawai'i -2.4 · mkt Hawai'i +3.3
LeanHawai'i +3.3
Best priceHawai'i +3.5 -112best of 7
WinHawai'i 57%
Tulane @ Duke4.8 pt gap
Model vs mktDuke -4.2 · mkt Duke -9.0
LeanTulane +9.0
Best priceTulane +10.5 -105best of 7
WinDuke 62%
Full Slate — ACC · Week 1 · 14 games
North Carolina @ TCUTCU 84%
Model
TCU -14.3 · mkt TCU -6.5
proj North Carolina 21.5 · TCU 35.8
leans TCU -6.5
◆ Mid 0.5
TCU -6.5 -110DraftKings
North Carolina +7 -115BetRivers
Clemson @ LSULSU 59%
Model
LSU -3.3 · mkt LSU -11.0
proj Clemson 25.2 · LSU 28.5
leans Clemson +11.0
◆ Mid 1
LSU -11 -111LowVig
Clemson +12 -109BetRivers
Colorado @ Georgia TechGeorgia Tech 85%
Model
Georgia Tech -14.6 · mkt Georgia Tech -7.3
proj Colorado 15.9 · Georgia Tech 30.5
leans Georgia Tech -7.3
◆ Mid 0.5
Georgia Tech -7 -106LowVig
Colorado +7.5 -112DraftKings
Louisville @ Ole MissOle Miss 84%
Model
Ole Miss -13.8 · mkt Ole Miss -6.5
proj Louisville 18.1 · Ole Miss 31.9
leans Ole Miss -6.5
◆ Mid 2
Ole Miss -4.5 -110BetOnline
Louisville +6.5 -108DraftKings
Akron @ Wake ForestWake Forest 87%
Model
Wake Forest -15.7 · mkt Wake Forest -22.5
proj Akron 18.6 · Wake Forest 34.3
leans Akron +22.5
◆ Mid 0
Wake Forest -22.5 -108DraftKings
Akron +22.5 -112DraftKings
SMU @ Florida StateFlorida State 59%
Model
Florida State -3.2 · mkt Florida State +2.5
proj SMU 26.4 · Florida State 29.6
leans Florida State +2.5
◆ Mid 0.5
Florida State +3 -111LowVig
SMU -2.5 -115DraftKings
Hawai'i @ StanfordHawai'i 57%
Model
Hawai'i -2.4 · mkt Hawai'i +3.3
proj Hawai'i 28.2 · Stanford 25.8
leans Hawai'i +3.3
◆ Mid 0
Stanford -3.5 -108DraftKings
Hawai'i +3.5 -112DraftKings
Tulane @ DukeDuke 62%
Model
Duke -4.2 · mkt Duke -9.0
proj Tulane 25.0 · Duke 29.2
leans Tulane +9.0
◆ Mid 1
Duke -9.5 -105DraftKings
Tulane +10.5 -105FanDuel
Miami (OH) @ PittsburghPittsburgh 80%
Model
Pittsburgh -11.7 · mkt Pittsburgh -16.0
proj Miami (OH) 20.2 · Pittsburgh 31.9
leans Miami (OH) +16.0
◆ Mid 1
Pittsburgh -15.5 -110DraftKings
Miami (OH) +16.5 -106LowVig
UCLA @ CaliforniaCalifornia 66%
Model
California -5.8 · mkt California -1.5
proj UCLA 26.2 · California 32.1
leans California -1.5
◆ Mid 1.5
California 0 -106LowVig
UCLA +1.5 -112DraftKings
NC State @ VirginiaVirginia 69%
Model
Virginia -7.2 · mkt Virginia -4.3
proj NC State 23.0 · Virginia 30.2
leans Virginia -4.3
◆ Mid 1
Virginia -5.5 -108DraftKings
NC State +6.5 -111LowVig
New Mexico State @ Florida StateFlorida State 99%
Model
Florida State -32.1 · mkt Florida State -30.0
proj New Mexico State 13.4 · Florida State 45.5
leans Florida State -30.0
◆ Mid 1.5
Florida State -29.5 -110FanDuel
New Mexico State +31 -106LowVig
Miami @ StanfordMiami 95%
Model
Miami -23.8 · mkt Miami -22.0
proj Miami 41.3 · Stanford 17.5
leans Miami -22.0
◆ Mid 1.5
Stanford +23 -101LowVig
Miami -21.5 -105FanDuel
Boston College @ CincinnatiCincinnati 74%
Model
Cincinnati -9.0 · mkt Cincinnati -8.5
proj Boston College 20.8 · Cincinnati 29.7
leans Cincinnati -8.5
◆ Mid 0
Cincinnati -7.5 -110DraftKings
Boston College +7.5 -110DraftKings
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.