CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 12 · ACC · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Full Slate — ACC · Week 12 · 9 games
Virginia Tech @ MiamiMiami 94%
Model
Miami -22.2 · mkt Miami —
proj Virginia Tech 19.0 · Miami 41.2
Total
proj 60.2
SMU @ Notre DameNotre Dame 86%
Model
Notre Dame -15.2 · mkt Notre Dame —
proj SMU 19.9 · Notre Dame 35.1
Total
proj 54.9
North Carolina @ VirginiaVirginia 82%
Model
Virginia -12.9 · mkt Virginia —
proj North Carolina 19.6 · Virginia 32.5
Total
proj 52.1
Wake Forest @ Georgia TechGeorgia Tech 74%
Model
Georgia Tech -9.3 · mkt Georgia Tech —
proj Wake Forest 24.9 · Georgia Tech 34.3
Total
proj 59.2
Syracuse @ Boston CollegeBoston College 74%
Model
Boston College -9.2 · mkt Boston College —
proj Syracuse 23.2 · Boston College 32.4
Total
proj 55.6
NC State @ Florida StateFlorida State 70%
Model
Florida State -7.6 · mkt Florida State —
proj NC State 20.2 · Florida State 27.8
Total
proj 48.1
Pittsburgh @ LouisvilleLouisville 68%
Model
Louisville -6.5 · mkt Louisville —
proj Pittsburgh 20.7 · Louisville 27.1
Total
proj 47.8
Stanford @ CaliforniaCalifornia 67%
Model
California -6.3 · mkt California —
proj Stanford 24.2 · California 30.6
Total
proj 54.8
Clemson @ DukeClemson 59%
Model
Clemson -3.2 · mkt Clemson —
proj Clemson 30.7 · Duke 27.6
Total
proj 58.3
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.