CFB Betting Edge

2026 · Week 13 · ACC · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
Full Slate ACC · Week 13 · 11 games
Model
Miami -29.2 · mkt Miami
proj Boston College 11.9 · Miami 41.1
Total
proj 53.0
Model
Georgia -16.4 · mkt Georgia
proj Georgia Tech 18.3 · Georgia 34.7
Total
proj 53.0
Model
Clemson -6.7 · mkt Clemson
proj South Carolina 22.4 · Clemson 29.1
Total
proj 51.5
Florida @ Florida StateFlorida State 58%
Model
Florida State -3.0 · mkt Florida State
proj Florida 24.7 · Florida State 27.7
Total
proj 52.5
Model
Kentucky -0.3 · mkt Kentucky
proj Louisville 27.6 · Kentucky 27.9
Total
proj 55.5
Model
Duke -1.7 · mkt Duke
proj Duke 26.0 · Wake Forest 24.2
Total
proj 50.2
Model
Pittsburgh -3.5 · mkt Pittsburgh
proj Pittsburgh 28.5 · California 25.0
Total
proj 53.5
Model
Virginia -4.7 · mkt Virginia
proj Virginia 32.3 · Virginia Tech 27.6
Total
proj 59.8
Model
NC State -5.4 · mkt NC State
proj NC State 27.8 · North Carolina 22.4
Total
proj 50.2
Model
SMU -14.1 · mkt SMU
proj SMU 35.9 · Stanford 21.8
Total
proj 57.6
Notre Dame @ SyracuseNotre Dame 98%
Model
Notre Dame -28.3 · mkt Notre Dame
proj Notre Dame 35.2 · Syracuse 6.9
Total
proj 42.1
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.