CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 7 · ACC · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — ACC · Week 7 · 7 games
Florida State @ MiamiMiami 83%
Model
Miami -13.7 · mkt Miami —
proj Florida State 20.9 · Miami 34.6
Total
proj 55.6
North Carolina @ DukeDuke 76%
Model
Duke -9.9 · mkt Duke —
proj North Carolina 24.5 · Duke 34.4
Total
proj 59.0
Wake Forest @ CaliforniaWake Forest 54%
Model
Wake Forest -1.3 · mkt Wake Forest —
proj Wake Forest 27.7 · California 26.3
Total
proj 54.0
Pittsburgh @ Boston CollegePittsburgh 69%
Model
Pittsburgh -6.9 · mkt Pittsburgh —
proj Pittsburgh 32.3 · Boston College 25.4
Total
proj 57.7
Georgia Tech @ Virginia TechGeorgia Tech 74%
Model
Georgia Tech -9.1 · mkt Georgia Tech —
proj Georgia Tech 32.0 · Virginia Tech 23.0
Total
proj 55.0
Louisville @ SyracuseLouisville 84%
Model
Louisville -14.0 · mkt Louisville —
proj Louisville 36.8 · Syracuse 22.9
Total
proj 59.7
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.