CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 9 · ACC · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Full Slate — ACC · Week 9 · 8 games
Stanford @ LouisvilleLouisville 81%
Model
Louisville -12.5 · mkt Louisville —
proj Stanford 20.1 · Louisville 32.6
Total
proj 52.8
California @ NC StateNC State 81%
Model
NC State -12.4 · mkt NC State —
proj California 23.6 · NC State 35.9
Total
proj 59.5
Boston College @ DukeDuke 80%
Model
Duke -12.1 · mkt Duke —
proj Boston College 20.6 · Duke 32.7
Total
proj 53.3
Clemson @ Florida StateFlorida State 57%
Model
Florida State -2.4 · mkt Florida State —
proj Clemson 26.6 · Florida State 29.0
Total
proj 55.7
Georgia Tech @ PittsburghPittsburgh 56%
Model
Pittsburgh -2.2 · mkt Pittsburgh —
proj Georgia Tech 26.6 · Pittsburgh 28.8
Total
proj 55.4
Virginia @ Wake ForestVirginia 57%
Model
Virginia -2.7 · mkt Virginia —
proj Virginia 30.1 · Wake Forest 27.4
Total
proj 57.4
Miami @ North CarolinaMiami 93%
Model
Miami -20.7 · mkt Miami —
proj Miami 37.1 · North Carolina 16.4
Total
proj 53.6
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.