CFB Betting Edge

2026 · Week 10 · American Athletic · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge

All Big Ten SEC Big 12 ACC FBS Independents Pac-12 American Athletic Mountain West Sun Belt Mid-American Conference USA

Season2026 2025 2024

Week1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Full Slate — American Athletic · Week 10 · 7 games

Rice @ North TexasNorth Texas 92%

Model

North Texas -20.1 · mkt North Texas —

proj Rice 18.8 · North Texas 38.9

Total

proj 57.7

Tulsa @ TulaneTulane 87%

Model

Tulane -16.0 · mkt Tulane —

proj Tulsa 18.3 · Tulane 34.3

Total

proj 52.6

Temple @ NavyNavy 87%

Model

Navy -15.8 · mkt Navy —

proj Temple 20.6 · Navy 36.4

Total

proj 56.9

Air Force @ ArmyArmy 82%

Model

Army -13.1 · mkt Army —

proj Air Force 19.3 · Army 32.4

Total

proj 51.7

Charlotte @ UABUAB 74%

Model

UAB -9.3 · mkt UAB —

proj Charlotte 21.5 · UAB 30.8

Total

proj 52.3

South Florida @ East CarolinaSouth Florida 51%

Model

South Florida -0.5 · mkt South Florida —

proj South Florida 28.8 · East Carolina 28.3

Total

proj 57.1

UTSA @ Florida AtlanticUTSA 71%

Model

UTSA -7.9 · mkt UTSA —

proj UTSA 33.6 · Florida Atlantic 25.7

Total

proj 59.3

The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.