CFB Betting Edge

2026 · Week 12 · American Athletic · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge

All Big Ten SEC Big 12 ACC FBS Independents Pac-12 American Athletic Mountain West Sun Belt Mid-American Conference USA

Season2026 2025 2024

Week1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Full Slate — American Athletic · Week 12 · 7 games

Charlotte @ TulsaTulsa 77%

Model

Tulsa -10.4 · mkt Tulsa —

proj Charlotte 21.3 · Tulsa 31.7

Total

proj 52.9

Rice @ TempleTemple 69%

Model

Temple -7.0 · mkt Temple —

proj Rice 24.1 · Temple 31.1

Total

proj 55.1

Memphis @ NavyNavy 68%

Model

Navy -6.8 · mkt Navy —

proj Memphis 24.2 · Navy 31.0

Total

proj 55.2

East Carolina @ ArmyArmy 51%

Model

Army -0.5 · mkt Army —

proj East Carolina 26.1 · Army 26.7

Total

proj 52.8

North Texas @ TulaneNorth Texas 56%

Model

North Texas -2.0 · mkt North Texas —

proj North Texas 28.3 · Tulane 26.3

Total

proj 54.6

UTSA @ UABUTSA 77%

Model

UTSA -10.5 · mkt UTSA —

proj UTSA 34.5 · UAB 24.0

Total

proj 58.5

South Florida @ Florida AtlanticSouth Florida 83%

Model

South Florida -13.5 · mkt South Florida —

proj South Florida 35.3 · Florida Atlantic 21.8

Total

proj 57.1

The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.