CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 4 · American Athletic · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Full Slate — American Athletic · Week 4 · 9 games
Tulsa @ ArkansasArkansas 95%
Model
Arkansas -23.6 · mkt Arkansas —
proj Tulsa 15.7 · Arkansas 39.3
Total
proj 55.0
Colorado State @ UTSAUTSA 88%
Model
UTSA -16.7 · mkt UTSA —
proj Colorado State 17.6 · UTSA 34.2
Total
proj 51.8
Rice @ Fresno StateFresno State 83%
Model
Fresno State -13.5 · mkt Fresno State —
proj Rice 20.9 · Fresno State 34.4
Total
proj 55.3
Southern Miss @ TulaneTulane 82%
Model
Tulane -12.7 · mkt Tulane —
proj Southern Miss 19.7 · Tulane 32.5
Total
proj 52.2
Florida Atlantic @ UL MonroeFlorida Atlantic 69%
Model
Florida Atlantic -7.1 · mkt Florida Atlantic —
proj Florida Atlantic 32.5 · UL Monroe 25.5
Total
proj 58.0
Louisiana @ CharlotteLouisiana 74%
Model
Louisiana -9.3 · mkt Louisiana —
proj Louisiana 32.8 · Charlotte 23.5
Total
proj 56.3
South Florida @ Bowling GreenSouth Florida 93%
Model
South Florida -21.2 · mkt South Florida —
proj South Florida 37.2 · Bowling Green 16.1
Total
proj 53.3
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.