CFB Betting Edge

2026 · Week 5 · American Athletic · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge

All Big Ten SEC Big 12 ACC FBS Independents Pac-12 American Athletic Mountain West Sun Belt Mid-American Conference USA

Season2026 2025 2024

Week1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Full Slate — American Athletic · Week 5 · 6 games

Temple @ South FloridaSouth Florida 94%

Model

South Florida -21.9 · mkt South Florida —

proj Temple 15.6 · South Florida 37.5

Total

proj 53.1

Army @ Louisiana TechLouisiana Tech 56%

Model

Louisiana Tech -2.2 · mkt Louisiana Tech —

proj Army 24.1 · Louisiana Tech 26.2

Total

proj 50.3

Navy @ Air ForceAir Force 51%

Model

Air Force -0.2 · mkt Air Force —

proj Navy 29.4 · Air Force 29.7

Total

proj 59.1

UTSA @ RiceUTSA 87%

Model

UTSA -16.3 · mkt UTSA —

proj UTSA 38.8 · Rice 22.5

Total

proj 61.3

North Texas @ TulsaNorth Texas 89%

Model

North Texas -17.6 · mkt North Texas —

proj North Texas 36.8 · Tulsa 19.1

Total

proj 55.9

Memphis @ CharlotteMemphis 95%

Model

Memphis -22.7 · mkt Memphis —

proj Memphis 36.0 · Charlotte 13.3

Total

proj 49.4

The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.