CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 9 · American Athletic · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — American Athletic · Week 9 · 6 games
Navy @ Notre DameNotre Dame 97%
Model
Notre Dame -26.6 · mkt Notre Dame —
proj Navy 15.3 · Notre Dame 41.8
Total
proj 57.1
UAB @ South FloridaSouth Florida 96%
Model
South Florida -24.3 · mkt South Florida —
proj UAB 18.7 · South Florida 43.0
Total
proj 61.7
Florida Atlantic @ North TexasNorth Texas 93%
Model
North Texas -21.2 · mkt North Texas —
proj Florida Atlantic 17.3 · North Texas 38.5
Total
proj 55.8
Temple @ East CarolinaEast Carolina 84%
Model
East Carolina -14.3 · mkt East Carolina —
proj Temple 20.5 · East Carolina 34.8
Total
proj 55.3
Army @ MemphisMemphis 81%
Model
Memphis -12.7 · mkt Memphis —
proj Army 18.5 · Memphis 31.2
Total
proj 49.7
Tulane @ CharlotteTulane 94%
Model
Tulane -21.8 · mkt Tulane —
proj Tulane 38.1 · Charlotte 16.3
Total
proj 54.4
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.