CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 3 · Big 12 · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 3 backtest · Big 12 · 13 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
8–562%
ATS vs close
6–746%
Model margin MAE
12.5
Market margin MAE
12.5
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
North Texas @ Texas TechFinal 21–66
Model
pred Texas Tech 16.9 · actual Texas Tech 45
winner Texas Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas Tech -10.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 28.1 · mkt 34.5 · closer
Air Force @ BaylorFinal 3–31
Model
pred Baylor 7.7 · actual Baylor 28
winner Baylor ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Air Force +17.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 20.3 · mkt 11.0 · mkt closer
Rice @ HoustonFinal 7–33
Model
pred Houston 6.9 · actual Houston 26
winner Houston ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Houston -4.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 19.1 · mkt 21.5 · closer
West Virginia @ PittsburghFinal 34–38
Model
pred Pittsburgh 6.2 · actual Pittsburgh 4
winner Pittsburgh ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Pittsburgh +2.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.2 · mkt 6.0 · closer
UNLV @ KansasFinal 23–20
Model
pred Kansas 4.5 · actual UNLV 3
winner Kansas ✗
ATS vs close
leaned UNLV +9.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.5 · mkt 12.5 · closer
Arizona State @ Texas StateFinal 31–28
Model
pred Texas State 4.2 · actual Arizona State 3
winner Texas State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Texas State -2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.2 · mkt 5.5 · mkt closer
Cincinnati @ Miami (OH)Final 27–16
Model
pred Miami (OH) 3.3 · actual Cincinnati 11
winner Miami (OH) ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Miami (OH) +3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.3 · mkt 8.0 · mkt closer
UCF @ TCUFinal 35–34
Model
pred TCU 3.2 · actual UCF 1
winner TCU ✗
ATS vs close
leaned TCU -2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 4.2 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
Arizona @ Kansas StateFinal 7–31
Model
pred Arizona 2.7 · actual Kansas State 24
winner Arizona ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Arizona +7.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 26.7 · mkt 17.0 · mkt closer
Oklahoma State @ TulsaFinal 45–10
Model
pred Oklahoma State 14.1 · actual Oklahoma State 35
winner Oklahoma State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Tulsa +17.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 20.9 · mkt 17.5 · mkt closer
Colorado @ Colorado StateFinal 28–9
Model
pred Colorado 14.2 · actual Colorado 19
winner Colorado ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado -7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.8 · mkt 11.5 · closer
BYU @ WyomingFinal 34–14
Model
pred BYU 19.0 · actual BYU 20
winner BYU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned BYU -9.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.0 · mkt 10.5 · closer
Utah @ Utah StateFinal 38–21
Model
pred Utah 23.7 · actual Utah 17
winner Utah ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Utah -20.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 6.7 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.