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CFB Betting Edge

2024 · Week 4 · Big 12 · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 4 backtest · Big 12 · 8 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
4–450%
ATS vs close
3–538%
Model margin MAE
17.5
Market margin MAE
16.1
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Arkansas State @ Iowa StateFinal 7–52
Model
pred Iowa State 15.5 · actual Iowa State 45
winner Iowa State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Arkansas State +20.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 29.5 · mkt 24.5 · mkt closer
Utah @ Oklahoma StateFinal 22–19
Model
pred Oklahoma State 11.6 · actual Utah 3
winner Oklahoma State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Oklahoma State +1.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.6 · mkt 2.0 · mkt closer
TCU @ SMUFinal 42–66
Model
pred SMU 6.5 · actual SMU 24
winner SMU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned SMU +1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 17.5 · mkt 25.5 · closer
Houston @ CincinnatiFinal 0–34
Model
pred Cincinnati 6.3 · actual Cincinnati 34
winner Cincinnati ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Cincinnati -4.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 27.7 · mkt 30.0 · closer
Arizona State @ Texas TechFinal 22–30
Model
pred Texas Tech 3.3 · actual Texas Tech 8
winner Texas Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Arizona State +4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 4.7 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
Baylor @ ColoradoFinal 31–38
Model
pred Colorado 0.0 · actual Colorado 7
winner Colorado ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Baylor +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.0 · mkt 4.5 · mkt closer
Kansas State @ BYUFinal 9–38
Model
pred Kansas State 1.7 · actual BYU 29
winner Kansas State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned BYU +7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 30.7 · mkt 36.5 · closer
Kansas @ West VirginiaFinal 28–32
Model
pred Kansas 4.0 · actual West Virginia 4
winner Kansas ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Kansas +1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.0 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.