CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 2 · Big 12 · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 2 backtest · Big 12 · 12 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
8–467%
ATS vs close
5–5 · 2P50%
Model margin MAE
11.2
Market margin MAE
9.4
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Kent State @ Texas TechFinal 14–62
Model
pred Texas Tech 40.3 · actual Texas Tech 48
winner Texas Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kent State +48.0Push
margin err: model 7.7 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
Delaware @ ColoradoFinal 7–31
Model
pred Colorado 25.4 · actual Colorado 24
winner Colorado ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado -23.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.4 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Stanford @ BYUFinal 3–27
Model
pred BYU 19.3 · actual BYU 24
winner BYU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Stanford +20.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 4.7 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
Oklahoma State @ OregonFinal 3–69
Model
pred Oregon 14.0 · actual Oregon 66
winner Oregon ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oklahoma State +28.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 52.0 · mkt 37.5 · mkt closer
Bowling Green @ CincinnatiFinal 20–34
Model
pred Cincinnati 10.6 · actual Cincinnati 14
winner Cincinnati ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Bowling Green +22.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.4 · mkt 8.0 · closer
Army @ Kansas StateFinal 24–21
Model
pred Kansas State 10.5 · actual Army 3
winner Kansas State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Army +16.8Cover ✓
margin err: model 13.5 · mkt 19.8 · closer
Kansas @ MissouriFinal 31–42
Model
pred Missouri 7.3 · actual Missouri 11
winner Missouri ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Missouri -6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.7 · mkt 4.5 · closer
West Virginia @ OhioFinal 10–17
Model
pred Ohio 4.9 · actual Ohio 7
winner Ohio ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ohio +3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.1 · mkt 10.5 · closer
Baylor @ SMUFinal 48–45
Model
pred SMU 4.4 · actual Baylor 3
winner SMU ✗
ATS vs close
leaned SMU -2.8Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.4 · mkt 5.8 · mkt closer
Iowa @ Iowa StateFinal 13–16
Model
pred Iowa 1.6 · actual Iowa State 3
winner Iowa ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Iowa +3.0Push
margin err: model 4.6 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
Houston @ RiceFinal 35–9
Model
pred Houston 4.7 · actual Houston 26
winner Houston ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Rice +13.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 21.3 · mkt 12.5 · mkt closer
Arizona State @ Mississippi StateFinal 20–24
Model
pred Arizona State 9.0 · actual Mississippi State 4
winner Arizona State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Arizona State -5.8Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.0 · mkt 9.8 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.