CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 1 · Big 12 · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
Oklahoma State @ Tulsa13.9 pt gap
Model vs mktTulsa -1.9 · mkt Tulsa +12.0
LeanTulsa +12.0
Best priceTulsa +13.5 -115best of 7
WinTulsa 55%
North Carolina @ TCU7.8 pt gap
Model vs mktTCU -14.3 · mkt TCU -6.5
LeanTCU -6.5
Best priceTCU -6.5 -110best of 8
WinTCU 84%
Colorado @ Georgia Tech7.3 pt gap
Model vs mktGeorgia Tech -14.6 · mkt Georgia Tech -7.3
LeanGeorgia Tech -7.3
Best priceGeorgia Tech -7 -106best of 7
WinGeorgia Tech 85%
Baylor @ Auburn6.6 pt gap
Model vs mktAuburn -13.4 · mkt Auburn -6.8
LeanAuburn -6.8
Best priceAuburn -7 -105best of 8
WinAuburn 83%
Coastal Carolina @ West Virginia6.2 pt gap
Model vs mktWest Virginia -11.3 · mkt West Virginia -17.5
LeanCoastal Carolina +17.5
Best priceCoastal Carolina +18.5 -115best of 7
WinWest Virginia 79%
Oregon State @ Houston4.3 pt gap
Model vs mktHouston -14.2 · mkt Houston -18.5
LeanOregon State +18.5
Best priceOregon State +18.5 -110best of 7
WinHouston 84%
Boston College @ Cincinnati0.5 pt gap
Model vs mktCincinnati -9.0 · mkt Cincinnati -8.5
LeanCincinnati -8.5
Best priceCincinnati -7.5 -110best of 7
WinCincinnati 74%
Full Slate — Big 12 · Week 1 · 7 games
Oklahoma State @ TulsaTulsa 55%
Model
Tulsa -1.9 · mkt Tulsa +12.0
proj Oklahoma State 26.8 · Tulsa 28.7
leans Tulsa +12.0
◆ Mid 1
Tulsa +13.5 -115FanDuel
Oklahoma State -12.5 -112DraftKings
North Carolina @ TCUTCU 84%
Model
TCU -14.3 · mkt TCU -6.5
proj North Carolina 21.5 · TCU 35.8
leans TCU -6.5
◆ Mid 0.5
TCU -6.5 -110DraftKings
North Carolina +7 -115BetRivers
Colorado @ Georgia TechGeorgia Tech 85%
Model
Georgia Tech -14.6 · mkt Georgia Tech -7.3
proj Colorado 15.9 · Georgia Tech 30.5
leans Georgia Tech -7.3
◆ Mid 0.5
Georgia Tech -7 -106LowVig
Colorado +7.5 -112DraftKings
Baylor @ AuburnAuburn 83%
Model
Auburn -13.4 · mkt Auburn -6.8
proj Baylor 20.1 · Auburn 33.5
leans Auburn -6.8
◆ Mid 1
Auburn -7 -105DraftKings
Baylor +8 -113BetRivers
Coastal Carolina @ West VirginiaWest Virginia 79%
Model
West Virginia -11.3 · mkt West Virginia -17.5
proj Coastal Carolina 20.4 · West Virginia 31.7
leans Coastal Carolina +17.5
◆ Mid 1
West Virginia -17.5 -112DraftKings
Coastal Carolina +18.5 -115FanDuel
Oregon State @ HoustonHouston 84%
Model
Houston -14.2 · mkt Houston -18.5
proj Oregon State 19.7 · Houston 33.8
leans Oregon State +18.5
◆ Mid 0
Houston -18.5 -110DraftKings
Oregon State +18.5 -110DraftKings
Boston College @ CincinnatiCincinnati 74%
Model
Cincinnati -9.0 · mkt Cincinnati -8.5
proj Boston College 20.8 · Cincinnati 29.7
leans Cincinnati -8.5
◆ Mid 0
Cincinnati -7.5 -110DraftKings
Boston College +7.5 -110DraftKings
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.