CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 10 · Big 12 · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Big 12 · Week 10 · 8 games
Oklahoma State @ Kansas StateKansas State 92%
Model
Kansas State -19.7 · mkt Kansas State —
proj Oklahoma State 18.1 · Kansas State 37.9
Total
proj 56.0
West Virginia @ Texas TechTexas Tech 89%
Model
Texas Tech -17.4 · mkt Texas Tech —
proj West Virginia 18.9 · Texas Tech 36.2
Total
proj 55.1
Colorado @ Arizona StateArizona State 73%
Model
Arizona State -8.5 · mkt Arizona State —
proj Colorado 22.1 · Arizona State 30.6
Total
proj 52.6
Cincinnati @ HoustonHouston 59%
Model
Houston -3.1 · mkt Houston —
proj Cincinnati 24.7 · Houston 27.8
Total
proj 52.4
Iowa State @ BaylorIowa State 52%
Model
Iowa State -0.8 · mkt Iowa State —
proj Iowa State 28.1 · Baylor 27.3
Total
proj 55.5
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.