CFB Betting Edge

2026 · Week 11 · Big 12 · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge

All Big Ten SEC Big 12 ACC FBS Independents Pac-12 American Athletic Mountain West Sun Belt Mid-American Conference USA

Season2026 2025 2024

Week1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Full Slate — Big 12 · Week 11 · 8 games

Baylor @ BYUBYU 81%

Model

BYU -12.7 · mkt BYU —

proj Baylor 20.6 · BYU 33.2

Total

proj 53.8

Cincinnati @ Iowa StateIowa State 71%

Model

Iowa State -8.0 · mkt Iowa State —

proj Cincinnati 23.2 · Iowa State 31.2

Total

proj 54.4

Kansas State @ TCUTCU 66%

Model

TCU -5.8 · mkt TCU —

proj Kansas State 22.1 · TCU 27.9

Total

proj 50.1

Arizona State @ UCFUCF 51%

Model

UCF -0.5 · mkt UCF —

proj Arizona State 28.1 · UCF 28.5

Total

proj 56.6

Kansas @ West VirginiaKansas 63%

Model

Kansas -4.6 · mkt Kansas —

proj Kansas 30.5 · West Virginia 26.0

Total

proj 56.5

Utah @ ArizonaUtah 64%

Model

Utah -5.0 · mkt Utah —

proj Utah 30.4 · Arizona 25.5

Total

proj 55.9

Houston @ ColoradoHouston 75%

Model

Houston -9.7 · mkt Houston —

proj Houston 30.8 · Colorado 21.1

Total

proj 51.9

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma StateTexas Tech 96%

Model

Texas Tech -25.6 · mkt Texas Tech —

proj Texas Tech 36.6 · Oklahoma State 10.9

Total

proj 47.5

The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.