CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 12 · Big 12 · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Big 12 · Week 12 · 8 games
Oklahoma State @ Arizona StateArizona State 86%
Model
Arizona State -15.3 · mkt Arizona State —
proj Oklahoma State 18.6 · Arizona State 34.0
Total
proj 52.6
Colorado @ CincinnatiCincinnati 66%
Model
Cincinnati -5.9 · mkt Cincinnati —
proj Colorado 22.2 · Cincinnati 28.1
Total
proj 50.3
Arizona @ Kansas StateArizona 54%
Model
Arizona -1.4 · mkt Arizona —
proj Arizona 26.7 · Kansas State 25.3
Total
proj 52.0
Iowa State @ UCFIowa State 63%
Model
Iowa State -4.6 · mkt Iowa State —
proj Iowa State 29.5 · UCF 24.8
Total
proj 54.3
Houston @ West VirginiaHouston 65%
Model
Houston -5.4 · mkt Houston —
proj Houston 29.6 · West Virginia 24.3
Total
proj 53.9
Texas Tech @ BaylorTexas Tech 94%
Model
Texas Tech -22.5 · mkt Texas Tech —
proj Texas Tech 40.0 · Baylor 17.5
Total
proj 57.4
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.