CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 2 · Big 12 · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
Oregon @ Oklahoma State10.6 pt gap
Model vs mktOregon -29.1 · mkt Oregon ~-18.5
LeanOregon -18.5
Best priceOregon -17.5 -105best of 2
WinOregon 98%
Missouri @ Kansas4.9 pt gap
Model vs mktMissouri -1.8 · mkt Missouri ~-6.7
LeanKansas +6.7
Best priceKansas +7 -110best of 2
WinMissouri 55%
Arizona State @ Texas A&M2.6 pt gap
Model vs mktTexas A&M -17.1 · mkt Texas A&M ~-14.5
LeanTexas A&M -14.5
Best priceTexas A&M -14.5 -110best of 1
WinTexas A&M 89%
Iowa State @ Iowa2.4 pt gap
Model vs mktIowa -9.6 · mkt Iowa ~-12.0
LeanIowa State +12.0
Best priceIowa State +12.5 +100best of 2
WinIowa 75%
Arkansas @ Utah2.0 pt gap
Model vs mktUtah -12.0 · mkt Utah ~-10.0
LeanUtah -10.0
Best priceUtah -10 -110best of 1
WinUtah 80%
Full Slate — Big 12 · Week 2 · 9 games
Oregon @ Oklahoma StateOregon 98%
Model
Oregon -29.1 · mkt Oregon ~-18.5
proj Oregon 40.5 · Oklahoma State 11.4
leans Oregon -18.5
◆ Mid 2
Oklahoma State +19.5 -110DraftKings
Oregon -17.5 -105FanDuel
Missouri @ KansasMissouri 55%
Model
Missouri -1.8 · mkt Missouri ~-6.7
proj Missouri 31.3 · Kansas 29.5
leans Kansas +6.7
◆ Mid 0.5
Kansas +7 -110DraftKings
Missouri -6.5 -112FanDuel
Arizona State @ Texas A&MTexas A&M 89%
Model
Texas A&M -17.1 · mkt Texas A&M ~-14.5
proj Arizona State 17.8 · Texas A&M 34.8
leans Texas A&M -14.5
◆ Mid 0
Texas A&M -14.5 -110DraftKings
Arizona State +14.5 -110DraftKings
Iowa State @ IowaIowa 75%
Model
Iowa -9.6 · mkt Iowa ~-12.0
proj Iowa State 22.3 · Iowa 32.0
leans Iowa State +12.0
◆ Mid 1
Iowa -11.5 -110DraftKings
Iowa State +12.5 +100FanDuel
Arkansas @ UtahUtah 80%
Model
Utah -12.0 · mkt Utah ~-10.0
proj Arkansas 24.6 · Utah 36.6
leans Utah -10.0
◆ Mid 0
Utah -10 -110DraftKings
Arkansas +10 -110DraftKings
UCF @ PittsburghPittsburgh 81%
Model
Pittsburgh -12.6 · mkt Pittsburgh —
proj UCF 22.1 · Pittsburgh 34.7
Total
proj 56.7
Washington State @ Kansas StateKansas State 73%
Model
Kansas State -8.5 · mkt Kansas State —
proj Washington State 21.9 · Kansas State 30.4
Total
proj 52.4
Texas Tech @ Oregon StateTexas Tech 93%
Model
Texas Tech -21.0 · mkt Texas Tech —
proj Texas Tech 35.1 · Oregon State 14.1
Total
proj 49.2
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.