CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 3 · Big 12 · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Big 12 · Week 3 · 13 games
Northern Illinois @ ArizonaArizona 98%
Model
Arizona -28.0 · mkt Arizona —
proj Northern Illinois 12.7 · Arizona 40.7
Total
proj 53.4
Arkansas State @ TCUTCU 95%
Model
TCU -23.0 · mkt TCU —
proj Arkansas State 16.0 · TCU 39.0
Total
proj 55.1
Bowling Green @ Iowa StateIowa State 93%
Model
Iowa State -20.5 · mkt Iowa State —
proj Bowling Green 16.8 · Iowa State 37.3
Total
proj 54.1
Georgia State @ UCFUCF 88%
Model
UCF -16.5 · mkt UCF —
proj Georgia State 18.3 · UCF 34.8
Total
proj 53.1
Houston @ Texas TechTexas Tech 86%
Model
Texas Tech -15.5 · mkt Texas Tech —
proj Houston 18.9 · Texas Tech 34.4
Total
proj 53.3
Louisiana Tech @ BaylorBaylor 80%
Model
Baylor -11.8 · mkt Baylor —
proj Louisiana Tech 21.5 · Baylor 33.4
Total
proj 54.9
Colorado @ NorthwesternNorthwestern 78%
Model
Northwestern -10.8 · mkt Northwestern —
proj Colorado 17.0 · Northwestern 27.8
Total
proj 44.9
Miami (OH) @ CincinnatiCincinnati 74%
Model
Cincinnati -9.1 · mkt Cincinnati —
proj Miami (OH) 21.9 · Cincinnati 31.0
Total
proj 52.9
Tulane @ Kansas StateKansas State 65%
Model
Kansas State -5.6 · mkt Kansas State —
proj Tulane 23.1 · Kansas State 28.7
Total
proj 51.8
Kansas @ Arizona StateKansas 57%
Model
Kansas -2.4 · mkt Kansas —
proj Kansas 26.9 · Arizona State 24.6
Total
proj 51.5
Virginia @ West VirginiaVirginia 67%
Model
Virginia -6.3 · mkt Virginia —
proj Virginia 29.0 · West Virginia 22.7
Total
proj 51.8
BYU @ Colorado StateBYU 91%
Model
BYU -18.8 · mkt BYU —
proj BYU 40.1 · Colorado State 21.3
Total
proj 61.4
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.