CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 4 · Big 12 · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Big 12 · Week 4 · 8 games
Sam Houston @ Texas TechTexas Tech 100%
Model
Texas Tech -36.9 · mkt Texas Tech —
proj Sam Houston 17.5 · Texas Tech 54.4
Total
proj 71.9
Oklahoma State @ West VirginiaWest Virginia 80%
Model
West Virginia -11.7 · mkt West Virginia —
proj Oklahoma State 21.9 · West Virginia 33.6
Total
proj 55.4
Colorado @ BaylorBaylor 71%
Model
Baylor -8.0 · mkt Baylor —
proj Colorado 21.3 · Baylor 29.3
Total
proj 50.6
Arizona @ Washington StateArizona 53%
Model
Arizona -1.0 · mkt Arizona —
proj Arizona 26.8 · Washington State 25.8
Total
proj 52.5
Kansas State @ CincinnatiKansas State 54%
Model
Kansas State -1.6 · mkt Kansas State —
proj Kansas State 26.9 · Cincinnati 25.3
Total
proj 52.1
Houston @ Georgia SouthernHouston 69%
Model
Houston -7.2 · mkt Houston —
proj Houston 33.1 · Georgia Southern 25.9
Total
proj 59.0
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.