CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 5 · Big 12 · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Big 12 · Week 5 · 7 games
Middle Tennessee @ KansasKansas 94%
Model
Kansas -21.7 · mkt Kansas —
proj Middle Tennessee 17.0 · Kansas 38.7
Total
proj 55.7
West Virginia @ Iowa StateIowa State 83%
Model
Iowa State -13.6 · mkt Iowa State —
proj West Virginia 19.3 · Iowa State 32.9
Total
proj 52.2
Cincinnati @ ArizonaArizona 75%
Model
Arizona -9.7 · mkt Arizona —
proj Cincinnati 23.6 · Arizona 33.3
Total
proj 57.0
Baylor @ Arizona StateArizona State 68%
Model
Arizona State -6.8 · mkt Arizona State —
proj Baylor 23.8 · Arizona State 30.6
Total
proj 54.4
Texas Tech @ ColoradoTexas Tech 83%
Model
Texas Tech -13.5 · mkt Texas Tech —
proj Texas Tech 35.2 · Colorado 21.7
Total
proj 56.9
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.