CFB Betting Edge

2026 · Week 6 · Big 12 · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge

All Big Ten SEC Big 12 ACC FBS Independents Pac-12 American Athletic Mountain West Sun Belt Mid-American Conference USA

Season2026 2025 2024

Week1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Full Slate — Big 12 · Week 6 · 6 games

Hawai'i @ Arizona StateArizona State 82%

Model

Arizona State -13.2 · mkt Arizona State —

proj Hawai'i 19.8 · Arizona State 33.1

Total

proj 52.9

Kansas @ UtahUtah 80%

Model

Utah -12.0 · mkt Utah —

proj Kansas 22.6 · Utah 34.6

Total

proj 57.2

Iowa State @ BYUBYU 72%

Model

BYU -8.1 · mkt BYU —

proj Iowa State 24.7 · BYU 32.8

Total

proj 57.5

Houston @ Kansas StateKansas State 64%

Model

Kansas State -5.1 · mkt Kansas State —

proj Houston 23.9 · Kansas State 29.0

Total

proj 52.9

UCF @ Oklahoma StateUCF 66%

Model

UCF -5.8 · mkt UCF —

proj UCF 28.6 · Oklahoma State 22.8

Total

proj 51.4

Arizona @ West VirginiaArizona 75%

Model

Arizona -9.4 · mkt Arizona —

proj Arizona 30.9 · West Virginia 21.5

Total

proj 52.4

The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.