CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 7 · Big 12 · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
Notre Dame @ BYU6.4 pt gap
Model vs mktNotre Dame -4.1 · mkt Notre Dame ~-10.5
LeanBYU +10.5
Best priceBYU +10.5 -110best of 1
WinNotre Dame 61%
Kansas @ Kansas State5.5 pt gap
Model vs mktKansas State -3.0 · mkt Kansas State ~-8.5
LeanKansas +8.5
Best priceKansas +8.5 -110best of 1
WinKansas State 58%
Full Slate — Big 12 · Week 7 · 7 games
Notre Dame @ BYUNotre Dame 61%
Model
Notre Dame -4.1 · mkt Notre Dame ~-10.5
proj Notre Dame 28.2 · BYU 24.1
leans BYU +10.5
◆ Mid 0
BYU +10.5 -110DraftKings
Notre Dame -10.5 -110DraftKings
Kansas @ Kansas StateKansas State 58%
Model
Kansas State -3.0 · mkt Kansas State ~-8.5
proj Kansas 24.7 · Kansas State 27.7
leans Kansas +8.5
◆ Mid 0
Kansas State -8.5 -110DraftKings
Kansas +8.5 -110DraftKings
Arizona State @ Texas TechTexas Tech 84%
Model
Texas Tech -14.0 · mkt Texas Tech —
proj Arizona State 20.9 · Texas Tech 34.9
Total
proj 55.8
Oklahoma State @ HoustonHouston 78%
Model
Houston -11.1 · mkt Houston —
proj Oklahoma State 21.8 · Houston 32.8
Total
proj 54.6
Cincinnati @ West VirginiaCincinnati 57%
Model
Cincinnati -2.5 · mkt Cincinnati —
proj Cincinnati 27.5 · West Virginia 25.0
Total
proj 52.4
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.