CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 8 · Big 12 · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Big 12 · Week 8 · 8 games
West Virginia @ TCUTCU 84%
Model
TCU -14.1 · mkt TCU —
proj West Virginia 19.6 · TCU 33.6
Total
proj 53.2
Baylor @ KansasKansas 66%
Model
Kansas -5.9 · mkt Kansas —
proj Baylor 24.3 · Kansas 30.2
Total
proj 54.5
Iowa State @ ArizonaArizona 62%
Model
Arizona -4.2 · mkt Arizona —
proj Iowa State 26.4 · Arizona 30.6
Total
proj 57.0
Kansas State @ Arizona StateArizona State 58%
Model
Arizona State -2.9 · mkt Arizona State —
proj Kansas State 24.3 · Arizona State 27.2
Total
proj 51.5
Colorado @ Oklahoma StateColorado 53%
Model
Colorado -0.9 · mkt Colorado —
proj Colorado 27.6 · Oklahoma State 26.7
Total
proj 54.3
Texas Tech @ CincinnatiTexas Tech 92%
Model
Texas Tech -20.0 · mkt Texas Tech —
proj Texas Tech 42.6 · Cincinnati 22.5
Total
proj 65.1
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.