CFB Betting Edge

2026 · Week 9 · Big 12 · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge

All Big Ten SEC Big 12 ACC FBS Independents Pac-12 American Athletic Mountain West Sun Belt Mid-American Conference USA

Season2026 2025 2024

Week1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Full Slate — Big 12 · Week 9 · 7 games

Oklahoma State @ Iowa StateIowa State 90%

Model

Iowa State -18.0 · mkt Iowa State —

proj Oklahoma State 16.2 · Iowa State 34.2

Total

proj 50.4

Arizona @ Texas TechTexas Tech 85%

Model

Texas Tech -14.9 · mkt Texas Tech —

proj Arizona 20.4 · Texas Tech 35.4

Total

proj 55.8

Arizona State @ BYUBYU 77%

Model

BYU -10.5 · mkt BYU —

proj Arizona State 22.3 · BYU 32.8

Total

proj 55.2

Kansas @ TCUTCU 68%

Model

TCU -6.5 · mkt TCU —

proj Kansas 22.6 · TCU 29.1

Total

proj 51.6

Baylor @ UCFBaylor 52%

Model

Baylor -0.7 · mkt Baylor —

proj Baylor 28.4 · UCF 27.7

Total

proj 56.1

Kansas State @ ColoradoKansas State 73%

Model

Kansas State -8.7 · mkt Kansas State —

proj Kansas State 31.6 · Colorado 23.0

Total

proj 54.6

Utah @ CincinnatiUtah 79%

Model

Utah -11.5 · mkt Utah —

proj Utah 35.0 · Cincinnati 23.5

Total

proj 58.4

The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.