CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 10 · Big Ten · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 10 backtest · Big Ten · 6 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
6–0100%
ATS vs close
2–433%
Model margin MAE
14.3
Market margin MAE
9.6
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Purdue @ MichiganFinal 16–21
Model
pred Michigan 20.3 · actual Michigan 5
winner Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Purdue +21.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 15.3 · mkt 16.0 · closer
Penn State @ Ohio StateFinal 14–38
Model
pred Ohio State 8.4 · actual Ohio State 24
winner Ohio State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Penn State +17.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 15.6 · mkt 6.5 · mkt closer
Michigan State @ MinnesotaFinal 20–23
Model
pred Minnesota 5.5 · actual Minnesota 3
winner Minnesota ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Minnesota -4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 2.5 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Rutgers @ IllinoisFinal 13–35
Model
pred Illinois 3.3 · actual Illinois 22
winner Illinois ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Rutgers +13.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.7 · mkt 9.0 · mkt closer
USC @ NebraskaFinal 21–17
Model
pred USC 2.4 · actual USC 4
winner USC ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Nebraska +4.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.6 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Indiana @ MarylandFinal 55–10
Model
pred Indiana 13.2 · actual Indiana 45
winner Indiana ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Maryland +21.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 31.8 · mkt 24.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.