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2025 · Week 14 · Big Ten · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 14 backtest · Big Ten · 9 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
9–0100%
ATS vs close
6–2 · 1P75%
Model margin MAE
9.1
Market margin MAE
9.8
→ model's margins were closer than the market
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
UCLA @ USCFinal 10–29
Model
pred USC 19.4 · actual USC 19
winner USC ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UCLA +21.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.4 · mkt 2.5 · closer
Wisconsin @ MinnesotaFinal 7–17
Model
pred Minnesota 5.9 · actual Minnesota 10
winner Minnesota ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Minnesota +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.1 · mkt 12.5 · closer
Northwestern @ IllinoisFinal 13–20
Model
pred Illinois 4.8 · actual Illinois 7
winner Illinois ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Northwestern +7.0Push
margin err: model 2.2 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
Maryland @ Michigan StateFinal 28–38
Model
pred Michigan State 2.5 · actual Michigan State 10
winner Michigan State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Maryland +4.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.5 · mkt 6.0 · mkt closer
Iowa @ NebraskaFinal 40–16
Model
pred Iowa 6.1 · actual Iowa 24
winner Iowa ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Iowa -5.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 17.9 · mkt 18.5 · closer
Oregon @ WashingtonFinal 26–14
Model
pred Oregon 12.5 · actual Oregon 12
winner Oregon ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon -6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.5 · mkt 5.5 · closer
Penn State @ RutgersFinal 40–36
Model
pred Penn State 13.1 · actual Penn State 4
winner Penn State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Rutgers +14.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 9.1 · mkt 10.0 · closer
Ohio State @ MichiganFinal 27–9
Model
pred Ohio State 13.3 · actual Ohio State 18
winner Ohio State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ohio State -9.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.7 · mkt 8.5 · closer
Indiana @ PurdueFinal 56–3
Model
pred Indiana 17.7 · actual Indiana 53
winner Indiana ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Purdue +28.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 35.3 · mkt 24.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.