CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 10 · Big Ten · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Big Ten · Week 10 · 8 games
Michigan State @ MichiganMichigan 91%
Model
Michigan -18.8 · mkt Michigan —
proj Michigan State 18.4 · Michigan 37.2
Total
proj 55.6
Oregon @ Ohio StateOhio State 76%
Model
Ohio State -10.0 · mkt Ohio State —
proj Oregon 17.4 · Ohio State 27.4
Total
proj 44.8
UCLA @ MinnesotaMinnesota 67%
Model
Minnesota -6.4 · mkt Minnesota —
proj UCLA 22.6 · Minnesota 29.1
Total
proj 51.7
Nebraska @ IllinoisIllinois 66%
Model
Illinois -5.7 · mkt Illinois —
proj Nebraska 26.7 · Illinois 32.3
Total
proj 59.0
Maryland @ PurduePurdue 54%
Model
Purdue -1.5 · mkt Purdue —
proj Maryland 27.0 · Purdue 28.5
Total
proj 55.4
Penn State @ WashingtonWashington 51%
Model
Washington -0.4 · mkt Washington —
proj Penn State 25.8 · Washington 26.2
Total
proj 51.9
Iowa @ NorthwesternIowa 62%
Model
Iowa -4.4 · mkt Iowa —
proj Iowa 30.7 · Northwestern 26.3
Total
proj 57.0
Rutgers @ WisconsinRutgers 66%
Model
Rutgers -5.7 · mkt Rutgers —
proj Rutgers 28.0 · Wisconsin 22.3
Total
proj 50.3
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.