CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 2 · Big Ten · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
Oregon @ Oklahoma State10.6 pt gap
Model vs mktOregon -29.1 · mkt Oregon ~-18.5
LeanOregon -18.5
Best priceOregon -17.5 -105best of 2
WinOregon 98%
Ohio State @ Texas6.8 pt gap
Model vs mktOhio State -5.3 · mkt Ohio State +1.5
LeanOhio State +1.5
Best priceOhio State +1.5 -108best of 4
WinOhio State 65%
Oklahoma @ Michigan5.5 pt gap
Model vs mktOklahoma -3.0 · mkt Oklahoma +2.5
LeanOklahoma +2.5
Best priceOklahoma +2.5 -110best of 4
WinOklahoma 58%
Iowa State @ Iowa2.4 pt gap
Model vs mktIowa -9.6 · mkt Iowa ~-12.0
LeanIowa State +12.0
Best priceIowa State +12.5 +100best of 2
WinIowa 75%
Full Slate — Big Ten · Week 2 · 15 games
Oregon @ Oklahoma StateOregon 98%
Model
Oregon -29.1 · mkt Oregon ~-18.5
proj Oregon 40.5 · Oklahoma State 11.4
leans Oregon -18.5
◆ Mid 2
Oklahoma State +19.5 -110DraftKings
Oregon -17.5 -105FanDuel
Ohio State @ TexasOhio State 65%
Model
Ohio State -5.3 · mkt Ohio State +1.5
proj Ohio State 28.5 · Texas 23.1
leans Ohio State +1.5
◆ Mid 1.5
Texas 0 -110DraftKings
Ohio State +1.5 -108FanDuel
Oklahoma @ MichiganOklahoma 58%
Model
Oklahoma -3.0 · mkt Oklahoma +2.5
proj Oklahoma 26.0 · Michigan 23.0
leans Oklahoma +2.5
◆ Mid 0
Michigan -2.5 -110DraftKings
Oklahoma +2.5 -110DraftKings
Iowa State @ IowaIowa 75%
Model
Iowa -9.6 · mkt Iowa ~-12.0
proj Iowa State 22.3 · Iowa 32.0
leans Iowa State +12.0
◆ Mid 1
Iowa -11.5 -110DraftKings
Iowa State +12.5 +100FanDuel
Bowling Green @ NebraskaNebraska 96%
Model
Nebraska -25.2 · mkt Nebraska —
proj Bowling Green 13.0 · Nebraska 38.2
Total
proj 51.2
Utah State @ WashingtonWashington 93%
Model
Washington -21.3 · mkt Washington —
proj Utah State 17.1 · Washington 38.4
Total
proj 55.5
Eastern Michigan @ Michigan StateMichigan State 84%
Model
Michigan State -14.3 · mkt Michigan State —
proj Eastern Michigan 19.2 · Michigan State 33.5
Total
proj 52.6
Duke @ IllinoisIllinois 72%
Model
Illinois -8.4 · mkt Illinois —
proj Duke 21.4 · Illinois 29.8
Total
proj 51.1
Mississippi State @ MinnesotaMississippi State 52%
Model
Mississippi State -0.7 · mkt Mississippi State —
proj Mississippi State 26.5 · Minnesota 25.8
Total
proj 52.3
Rutgers @ Boston CollegeRutgers 65%
Model
Rutgers -5.3 · mkt Rutgers —
proj Rutgers 31.3 · Boston College 26.0
Total
proj 57.3
San Diego State @ UCLASan Diego State 66%
Model
San Diego State -6.0 · mkt San Diego State —
proj San Diego State 30.8 · UCLA 24.8
Total
proj 55.6
Wake Forest @ PurdueWake Forest 69%
Model
Wake Forest -6.9 · mkt Wake Forest —
proj Wake Forest 30.6 · Purdue 23.7
Total
proj 54.4
Penn State @ TemplePenn State 95%
Model
Penn State -23.1 · mkt Penn State —
proj Penn State 41.2 · Temple 18.1
Total
proj 59.3
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.