CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 4 · Big Ten · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
Oregon @ USC3.7 pt gap
Model vs mktOregon -1.8 · mkt Oregon ~-5.5
LeanUSC +5.5
Best priceUSC +5.5 -110best of 1
WinOregon 55%
Full Slate — Big Ten · Week 4 · 9 games
Oregon @ USCOregon 55%
Model
Oregon -1.8 · mkt Oregon ~-5.5
proj Oregon 29.2 · USC 27.5
leans USC +5.5
◆ Mid 0
USC +5.5 -110DraftKings
Oregon -5.5 -110DraftKings
Illinois @ Ohio StateOhio State 94%
Model
Ohio State -22.2 · mkt Ohio State —
proj Illinois 15.2 · Ohio State 37.4
Total
proj 52.5
Northwestern @ IndianaIndiana 94%
Model
Indiana -21.8 · mkt Indiana —
proj Northwestern 18.9 · Indiana 40.6
Total
proj 59.5
Wisconsin @ Penn StatePenn State 91%
Model
Penn State -19.1 · mkt Penn State —
proj Wisconsin 16.5 · Penn State 35.6
Total
proj 52.2
Minnesota @ WashingtonWashington 74%
Model
Washington -9.2 · mkt Washington —
proj Minnesota 23.5 · Washington 32.7
Total
proj 56.1
Iowa @ MichiganMichigan 58%
Model
Michigan -2.8 · mkt Michigan —
proj Iowa 25.9 · Michigan 28.6
Total
proj 54.5
UCLA @ MarylandMaryland 56%
Model
Maryland -2.2 · mkt Maryland —
proj UCLA 24.8 · Maryland 26.9
Total
proj 51.7
Nebraska @ Michigan StateNebraska 65%
Model
Nebraska -5.6 · mkt Nebraska —
proj Nebraska 31.9 · Michigan State 26.3
Total
proj 58.3
Notre Dame @ PurdueNotre Dame 96%
Model
Notre Dame -25.5 · mkt Notre Dame —
proj Notre Dame 36.3 · Purdue 10.8
Total
proj 47.1
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.