CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 5 · Big Ten · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Big Ten · Week 5 · 8 games
Maryland @ NebraskaNebraska 84%
Model
Nebraska -14.1 · mkt Nebraska —
proj Maryland 19.5 · Nebraska 33.6
Total
proj 53.1
Purdue @ IllinoisIllinois 84%
Model
Illinois -13.9 · mkt Illinois —
proj Purdue 19.8 · Illinois 33.7
Total
proj 53.5
Michigan State @ WisconsinWisconsin 60%
Model
Wisconsin -3.5 · mkt Wisconsin —
proj Michigan State 24.9 · Wisconsin 28.4
Total
proj 53.3
Ohio State @ IowaOhio State 66%
Model
Ohio State -5.9 · mkt Ohio State —
proj Ohio State 32.3 · Iowa 26.4
Total
proj 58.8
Michigan @ MinnesotaMichigan 73%
Model
Michigan -8.6 · mkt Michigan —
proj Michigan 32.7 · Minnesota 24.1
Total
proj 56.7
Penn State @ NorthwesternPenn State 86%
Model
Penn State -15.5 · mkt Penn State —
proj Penn State 36.7 · Northwestern 21.2
Total
proj 57.9
Indiana @ RutgersIndiana 93%
Model
Indiana -21.4 · mkt Indiana —
proj Indiana 41.0 · Rutgers 19.6
Total
proj 60.5
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.