CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 6 · Big Ten · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
USC @ Penn State3.6 pt gap
Model vs mktPenn State -3.6 · mkt Penn State ~0.0
LeanPenn State 0.0
Best pricePenn State 0 -110best of 1
WinPenn State 60%
Full Slate — Big Ten · Week 6 · 8 games
USC @ Penn StatePenn State 60%
Model
Penn State -3.6 · mkt Penn State ~0.0
proj USC 25.1 · Penn State 28.7
leans Penn State 0.0
◆ Mid 0
Penn State 0 -110DraftKings
USC 0 -110DraftKings
Maryland @ Ohio StateOhio State 99%
Model
Ohio State -34.1 · mkt Ohio State —
proj Maryland 11.7 · Ohio State 45.8
Total
proj 57.5
Ball State @ NorthwesternNorthwestern 95%
Model
Northwestern -23.9 · mkt Northwestern —
proj Ball State 13.8 · Northwestern 37.7
Total
proj 51.5
Minnesota @ PurduePurdue 52%
Model
Purdue -0.8 · mkt Purdue —
proj Minnesota 27.8 · Purdue 28.5
Total
proj 56.3
Illinois @ Michigan StateIllinois 71%
Model
Illinois -8.0 · mkt Illinois —
proj Illinois 31.0 · Michigan State 23.0
Total
proj 53.9
Indiana @ NebraskaIndiana 88%
Model
Indiana -17.0 · mkt Indiana —
proj Indiana 36.3 · Nebraska 19.3
Total
proj 55.6
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.