CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 9 · Big Ten · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Full Slate — Big Ten · Week 9 · 9 games
Northwestern @ OregonOregon 96%
Model
Oregon -24.5 · mkt Oregon —
proj Northwestern 15.7 · Oregon 40.2
Total
proj 55.9
Purdue @ Penn StatePenn State 95%
Model
Penn State -23.3 · mkt Penn State —
proj Purdue 17.2 · Penn State 40.4
Total
proj 57.6
Minnesota @ IndianaIndiana 93%
Model
Indiana -21.4 · mkt Indiana —
proj Minnesota 17.9 · Indiana 39.3
Total
proj 57.3
Washington @ NebraskaWashington 63%
Model
Washington -4.5 · mkt Washington —
proj Washington 28.9 · Nebraska 24.4
Total
proj 53.3
Michigan @ RutgersMichigan 64%
Model
Michigan -5.1 · mkt Michigan —
proj Michigan 32.0 · Rutgers 26.9
Total
proj 58.9
Ohio State @ USCOhio State 64%
Model
Ohio State -5.1 · mkt Ohio State —
proj Ohio State 31.4 · USC 26.3
Total
proj 57.8
Illinois @ MarylandIllinois 70%
Model
Illinois -7.3 · mkt Illinois —
proj Illinois 31.8 · Maryland 24.5
Total
proj 56.3
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.