CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 1 · Conference USA · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
Jacksonville State @ North Dakota State11.3 pt gap
Model vs mktNorth Dakota State -20.6 · mkt North Dakota State -9.3
LeanNorth Dakota State -9.3
Best priceNorth Dakota State -7.5 -110best of 7
WinNorth Dakota State 93%
Liberty @ James Madison10.8 pt gap
Model vs mktJames Madison -16.8 · mkt James Madison -6.0
LeanJames Madison -6.0
Best priceJames Madison -6 -110best of 7
WinJames Madison 88%
Florida International @ South Florida10.4 pt gap
Model vs mktSouth Florida -22.9 · mkt South Florida -12.5
LeanSouth Florida -12.5
Best priceSouth Florida -11.5 -110best of 7
WinSouth Florida 95%
Missouri State @ Texas A&M5.7 pt gap
Model vs mktTexas A&M -44.2 · mkt Texas A&M -38.5
LeanTexas A&M -38.5
Best priceTexas A&M -38.5 -110best of 7
WinTexas A&M 100%
Western Kentucky @ Nevada3.9 pt gap
Model vs mktWestern Kentucky -7.4 · mkt Western Kentucky -3.5
LeanWestern Kentucky -3.5
Best priceWestern Kentucky -2.5 -122best of 6
WinWestern Kentucky 70%
New Mexico State @ Florida State2.1 pt gap
Model vs mktFlorida State -32.1 · mkt Florida State -30.0
LeanFlorida State -30.0
Best priceFlorida State -29.5 -110best of 7
WinFlorida State 99%
Sam Houston @ Troy0.1 pt gap
Model vs mktTroy -16.9 · mkt Troy -17.0
LeanSam Houston +17.0
Best priceSam Houston +18 -106best of 7
WinTroy 88%
Full Slate — Conference USA · Week 1 · 7 games
Jacksonville State @ North Dakota StateNorth Dakota State 93%
Model
North Dakota State -20.6 · mkt North Dakota State -9.3
proj Jacksonville State 18.0 · North Dakota State 38.6
leans North Dakota State -9.3
◆ Mid 1
North Dakota State -7.5 -110FanDuel
Jacksonville State +8.5 -108DraftKings
Liberty @ James MadisonJames Madison 88%
Model
James Madison -16.8 · mkt James Madison -6.0
proj Liberty 20.2 · James Madison 37.0
leans James Madison -6.0
◆ Mid 0.5
James Madison -6 -110DraftKings
Liberty +6.5 -108FanDuel
Florida International @ South FloridaSouth Florida 95%
Model
South Florida -22.9 · mkt South Florida -12.5
proj Florida International 15.7 · South Florida 38.6
leans South Florida -12.5
◆ Mid 1
South Florida -11.5 -110FanDuel
Florida International +12.5 -108DraftKings
Missouri State @ Texas A&MTexas A&M 100%
Model
Texas A&M -44.2 · mkt Texas A&M -38.5
proj Missouri State 4.8 · Texas A&M 49.0
leans Texas A&M -38.5
◆ Mid 1
Texas A&M -38.5 -110DraftKings
Missouri State +39.5 -110FanDuel
Western Kentucky @ NevadaWestern Kentucky 70%
Model
Western Kentucky -7.4 · mkt Western Kentucky -3.5
proj Western Kentucky 31.4 · Nevada 24.0
leans Western Kentucky -3.5
◆ Mid 1
Nevada +3.5 -111LowVig
Western Kentucky -2.5 -122FanDuel
New Mexico State @ Florida StateFlorida State 99%
Model
Florida State -32.1 · mkt Florida State -30.0
proj New Mexico State 13.4 · Florida State 45.5
leans Florida State -30.0
◆ Mid 1.5
Florida State -29.5 -110FanDuel
New Mexico State +31 -106LowVig
Sam Houston @ TroyTroy 88%
Model
Troy -16.9 · mkt Troy -17.0
proj Sam Houston 19.5 · Troy 36.4
leans Sam Houston +17.0
◆ Mid 0.5
Troy -17.5 -105DraftKings
Sam Houston +18 -106LowVig
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.