CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 10 · Conference USA · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Full Slate — Conference USA · Week 10 · 5 games
Sam Houston @ Jacksonville StateJacksonville State 82%
Model
Jacksonville State -12.8 · mkt Jacksonville State —
proj Sam Houston 18.8 · Jacksonville State 31.6
Total
proj 50.4
Delaware @ Kennesaw StateKennesaw State 70%
Model
Kennesaw State -7.6 · mkt Kennesaw State —
proj Delaware 22.2 · Kennesaw State 29.8
Total
proj 52.1
Missouri State @ Florida InternationalFlorida International 68%
Model
Florida International -6.8 · mkt Florida International —
proj Missouri State 22.9 · Florida International 29.7
Total
proj 52.6
Liberty @ New Mexico StateLiberty 62%
Model
Liberty -4.4 · mkt Liberty —
proj Liberty 31.4 · New Mexico State 27.0
Total
proj 58.4
Western Kentucky @ Middle TennesseeWestern Kentucky 65%
Model
Western Kentucky -5.5 · mkt Western Kentucky —
proj Western Kentucky 31.3 · Middle Tennessee 25.8
Total
proj 57.1
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.