CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 13 · Conference USA · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsAmerican AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Full Slate — Conference USA · Week 13 · 5 games
Sam Houston @ Florida InternationalFlorida International 84%
Model
Florida International -14.1 · mkt Florida International —
proj Sam Houston 17.9 · Florida International 32.0
Total
proj 50.0
Kennesaw State @ Western KentuckyWestern Kentucky 68%
Model
Western Kentucky -6.5 · mkt Western Kentucky —
proj Kennesaw State 22.9 · Western Kentucky 29.3
Total
proj 52.2
New Mexico State @ Middle TennesseeMiddle Tennessee 65%
Model
Middle Tennessee -5.6 · mkt Middle Tennessee —
proj New Mexico State 23.8 · Middle Tennessee 29.3
Total
proj 53.1
Liberty @ Missouri StateLiberty 54%
Model
Liberty -1.3 · mkt Liberty —
proj Liberty 28.5 · Missouri State 27.2
Total
proj 55.7
Jacksonville State @ DelawareJacksonville State 56%
Model
Jacksonville State -2.1 · mkt Jacksonville State —
proj Jacksonville State 30.4 · Delaware 28.4
Total
proj 58.8
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.