CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 2 · Conference USA · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Full Slate — Conference USA · Week 2 · 8 games
Western Kentucky @ GeorgiaGeorgia 100%
Model
Georgia -41.7 · mkt Georgia —
proj Western Kentucky 5.7 · Georgia 47.4
Total
proj 53.1
Delaware @ VanderbiltVanderbilt 100%
Model
Vanderbilt -41.2 · mkt Vanderbilt —
proj Delaware 7.0 · Vanderbilt 48.1
Total
proj 55.1
Middle Tennessee @ MarshallMarshall 81%
Model
Marshall -12.5 · mkt Marshall —
proj Middle Tennessee 21.3 · Marshall 33.8
Total
proj 55.0
New Mexico State @ Hawai'iHawai'i 80%
Model
Hawai'i -11.9 · mkt Hawai'i —
proj New Mexico State 20.1 · Hawai'i 32.0
Total
proj 52.1
Georgia State @ Kennesaw StateKennesaw State 78%
Model
Kennesaw State -10.9 · mkt Kennesaw State —
proj Georgia State 21.8 · Kennesaw State 32.7
Total
proj 54.4
Jacksonville State @ OhioOhio 64%
Model
Ohio -5.0 · mkt Ohio —
proj Jacksonville State 25.1 · Ohio 30.1
Total
proj 55.1
Buffalo @ Florida InternationalFlorida International 57%
Model
Florida International -2.4 · mkt Florida International —
proj Buffalo 24.4 · Florida International 26.8
Total
proj 51.2
Tulsa @ Sam HoustonTulsa 68%
Model
Tulsa -6.5 · mkt Tulsa —
proj Tulsa 31.4 · Sam Houston 24.9
Total
proj 56.3
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.