CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 3 · Conference USA · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Conference USA · Week 3 · 8 games
Kennesaw State @ TennesseeTennessee 98%
Model
Tennessee -30.2 · mkt Tennessee —
proj Kennesaw State 10.5 · Tennessee 40.7
Total
proj 51.2
Western Kentucky @ IndianaIndiana 96%
Model
Indiana -24.2 · mkt Indiana —
proj Western Kentucky 14.0 · Indiana 38.2
Total
proj 52.3
Ball State @ LibertyLiberty 85%
Model
Liberty -14.9 · mkt Liberty —
proj Ball State 18.3 · Liberty 33.2
Total
proj 51.5
Coastal Carolina @ DelawareDelaware 70%
Model
Delaware -7.3 · mkt Delaware —
proj Coastal Carolina 27.5 · Delaware 34.9
Total
proj 62.4
Georgia Southern @ Jacksonville StateJacksonville State 63%
Model
Jacksonville State -4.9 · mkt Jacksonville State —
proj Georgia Southern 24.2 · Jacksonville State 29.0
Total
proj 53.2
Florida International @ Florida AtlanticFlorida Atlantic 60%
Model
Florida Atlantic -3.5 · mkt Florida Atlantic —
proj Florida International 25.6 · Florida Atlantic 29.0
Total
proj 54.6
Nevada @ Middle TennesseeNevada 51%
Model
Nevada -0.5 · mkt Nevada —
proj Nevada 27.0 · Middle Tennessee 26.6
Total
proj 53.6
Marshall @ Missouri StateMarshall 56%
Model
Marshall -2.1 · mkt Marshall —
proj Marshall 32.3 · Missouri State 30.2
Total
proj 62.6
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.