CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 5 · Conference USA · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Full Slate — Conference USA · Week 5 · 3 games
Middle Tennessee @ KansasKansas 94%
Model
Kansas -21.7 · mkt Kansas —
proj Middle Tennessee 17.0 · Kansas 38.7
Total
proj 55.7
Liberty @ DelawareLiberty 52%
Model
Liberty -0.7 · mkt Liberty —
proj Liberty 30.5 · Delaware 29.9
Total
proj 60.4
Western Kentucky @ New Mexico StateWestern Kentucky 70%
Model
Western Kentucky -7.4 · mkt Western Kentucky —
proj Western Kentucky 31.6 · New Mexico State 24.2
Total
proj 55.8
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.