CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 6 · Conference USA · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Full Slate — Conference USA · Week 6 · 4 games
Sam Houston @ LibertyLiberty 88%
Model
Liberty -16.9 · mkt Liberty —
proj Sam Houston 18.1 · Liberty 35.0
Total
proj 53.2
Missouri State @ Western KentuckyWestern Kentucky 84%
Model
Western Kentucky -14.2 · mkt Western Kentucky —
proj Missouri State 20.3 · Western Kentucky 34.5
Total
proj 54.8
New Mexico State @ Florida InternationalFlorida International 81%
Model
Florida International -12.7 · mkt Florida International —
proj New Mexico State 21.5 · Florida International 34.2
Total
proj 55.7
Jacksonville State @ Kennesaw StateKennesaw State 51%
Model
Kennesaw State -0.4 · mkt Kennesaw State —
proj Jacksonville State 27.0 · Kennesaw State 27.4
Total
proj 54.4
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.