CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 8 · Conference USA · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Full Slate — Conference USA · Week 8 · 4 games
Middle Tennessee @ Florida InternationalFlorida International 75%
Model
Florida International -9.7 · mkt Florida International —
proj Middle Tennessee 22.7 · Florida International 32.4
Total
proj 55.1
Liberty @ Kennesaw StateKennesaw State 56%
Model
Kennesaw State -2.1 · mkt Kennesaw State —
proj Liberty 25.0 · Kennesaw State 27.1
Total
proj 52.1
Missouri State @ DelawareDelaware 52%
Model
Delaware -0.7 · mkt Delaware —
proj Missouri State 25.3 · Delaware 25.9
Total
proj 51.2
New Mexico State @ Sam HoustonNew Mexico State 57%
Model
New Mexico State -2.6 · mkt New Mexico State —
proj New Mexico State 28.5 · Sam Houston 25.9
Total
proj 54.4
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.