CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 9 · Conference USA · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Full Slate — Conference USA · Week 9 · 5 games
Sam Houston @ Missouri StateMissouri State 83%
Model
Missouri State -13.7 · mkt Missouri State —
proj Sam Houston 21.0 · Missouri State 34.7
Total
proj 55.6
Delaware @ Western KentuckyWestern Kentucky 79%
Model
Western Kentucky -11.4 · mkt Western Kentucky —
proj Delaware 20.2 · Western Kentucky 31.7
Total
proj 51.9
Florida International @ LibertyLiberty 65%
Model
Liberty -5.5 · mkt Liberty —
proj Florida International 23.5 · Liberty 29.1
Total
proj 52.6
Kennesaw State @ Middle TennesseeKennesaw State 57%
Model
Kennesaw State -2.7 · mkt Kennesaw State —
proj Kennesaw State 27.5 · Middle Tennessee 24.8
Total
proj 52.3
Jacksonville State @ New Mexico StateJacksonville State 72%
Model
Jacksonville State -8.2 · mkt Jacksonville State —
proj Jacksonville State 32.3 · New Mexico State 24.1
Total
proj 56.5
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.