CFB Betting Edge

2026 · Week 11 · FBS Independents · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge

All Big Ten SEC Big 12 ACC FBS Independents Pac-12 American Athletic Mountain West Sun Belt Mid-American Conference USA

Season2026 2025 2024

Week1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Full Slate — FBS Independents · Week 11 · 2 games

Boston College @ Notre DameNotre Dame 98%

Model

Notre Dame -30.0 · mkt Notre Dame —

proj Boston College 13.6 · Notre Dame 43.6

Total

proj 57.2

James Madison @ UConnJames Madison 68%

Model

James Madison -6.7 · mkt James Madison —

proj James Madison 30.1 · UConn 23.3

Total

proj 53.4

The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.