CFB Betting Edge

2026 · Week 6 · FBS Independents · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge

All Big Ten SEC Big 12 ACC FBS Independents Pac-12 American Athletic Mountain West Sun Belt Mid-American Conference USA

Season2026 2025 2024

Week1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Full Slate — FBS Independents · Week 6 · 2 games

Stanford @ Notre DameNotre Dame 99%

Model

Notre Dame -32.9 · mkt Notre Dame —

proj Stanford 12.9 · Notre Dame 45.8

Total

proj 58.6

UConn @ TempleUConn 64%

Model

UConn -5.2 · mkt UConn —

proj UConn 31.0 · Temple 25.8

Total

proj 56.7

The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.