CFB Betting Edge

2026 · Week 9 · FBS Independents · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge

All Big Ten SEC Big 12 ACC FBS Independents Pac-12 American Athletic Mountain West Sun Belt Mid-American Conference USA

Season2026 2025 2024

Week1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Full Slate — FBS Independents · Week 9 · 2 games

Navy @ Notre DameNotre Dame 97%

Model

Notre Dame -26.6 · mkt Notre Dame —

proj Navy 15.3 · Notre Dame 41.8

Total

proj 57.1

UConn @ Air ForceAir Force 58%

Model

Air Force -2.8 · mkt Air Force —

proj UConn 29.8 · Air Force 32.6

Total

proj 62.4

The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.