CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 11 · Mid-American · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Mid-American · Week 11 · 6 games
Massachusetts @ ToledoToledo 99%
Model
Toledo -34.5 · mkt Toledo —
proj Massachusetts 14.4 · Toledo 48.9
Total
proj 63.3
Sacramento State @ Central MichiganCentral Michigan 87%
Model
Central Michigan -16.2 · mkt Central Michigan —
proj Sacramento State 20.2 · Central Michigan 36.4
Total
proj 56.7
Kent State @ Bowling GreenBowling Green 73%
Model
Bowling Green -8.9 · mkt Bowling Green —
proj Kent State 21.1 · Bowling Green 29.9
Total
proj 51.0
Ohio @ Miami (OH)Miami (OH) 64%
Model
Miami (OH) -5.1 · mkt Miami (OH) —
proj Ohio 25.5 · Miami (OH) 30.5
Total
proj 56.0
Buffalo @ Ball StateBuffalo 61%
Model
Buffalo -4.0 · mkt Buffalo —
proj Buffalo 28.6 · Ball State 24.6
Total
proj 53.1
Western Michigan @ AkronWestern Michigan 72%
Model
Western Michigan -8.1 · mkt Western Michigan —
proj Western Michigan 32.3 · Akron 24.2
Total
proj 56.5
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.