CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 12 · Mid-American · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Mid-American · Week 12 · 6 games
Bowling Green @ ToledoToledo 86%
Model
Toledo -15.0 · mkt Toledo —
proj Bowling Green 20.2 · Toledo 35.2
Total
proj 55.4
Eastern Michigan @ Western MichiganWestern Michigan 81%
Model
Western Michigan -12.3 · mkt Western Michigan —
proj Eastern Michigan 20.6 · Western Michigan 32.9
Total
proj 53.4
Central Michigan @ BuffaloBuffalo 58%
Model
Buffalo -2.8 · mkt Buffalo —
proj Central Michigan 26.1 · Buffalo 28.9
Total
proj 55.0
Akron @ MassachusettsAkron 78%
Model
Akron -10.8 · mkt Akron —
proj Akron 33.2 · Massachusetts 22.4
Total
proj 55.7
Miami (OH) @ Kent StateMiami (OH) 87%
Model
Miami (OH) -16.0 · mkt Miami (OH) —
proj Miami (OH) 36.4 · Kent State 20.5
Total
proj 56.9
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.