CFB Betting Edge

2026 · Week 13 · Mid-American · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge

All Big Ten SEC Big 12 ACC FBS Independents American Athletic Mountain West Sun Belt Mid-American Conference USA

Season2026 2025 2024

Week1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Full Slate — Mid-American · Week 13 · 7 games

Sacramento State @ Hawai'iHawai'i 93%

Model

Hawai'i -21.0 · mkt Hawai'i —

proj Sacramento State 17.8 · Hawai'i 38.8

Total

proj 56.5

Massachusetts @ Bowling GreenBowling Green 92%

Model

Bowling Green -20.3 · mkt Bowling Green —

proj Massachusetts 16.5 · Bowling Green 36.8

Total

proj 53.4

Kent State @ Eastern MichiganEastern Michigan 76%

Model

Eastern Michigan -10.0 · mkt Eastern Michigan —

proj Kent State 20.9 · Eastern Michigan 30.9

Total

proj 51.7

Miami (OH) @ Western MichiganWestern Michigan 67%

Model

Western Michigan -6.2 · mkt Western Michigan —

proj Miami (OH) 24.5 · Western Michigan 30.6

Total

proj 55.1

Buffalo @ AkronAkron 50%

Model

Akron 0.0 · mkt Akron —

proj Buffalo 28.2 · Akron 28.1

Total

proj 56.3

Toledo @ OhioToledo 61%

Model

Toledo -4.0 · mkt Toledo —

proj Toledo 31.4 · Ohio 27.4

Total

proj 58.8

Central Michigan @ Ball StateCentral Michigan 62%

Model

Central Michigan -4.3 · mkt Central Michigan —

proj Central Michigan 27.6 · Ball State 23.3

Total

proj 50.9

The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.