CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 2 · Mid-American · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Full Slate — Mid-American · Week 2 · 5 games
Bowling Green @ NebraskaNebraska 96%
Model
Nebraska -25.2 · mkt Nebraska —
proj Bowling Green 13.0 · Nebraska 38.2
Total
proj 51.2
Sacramento State @ Fresno StateFresno State 93%
Model
Fresno State -21.0 · mkt Fresno State —
proj Sacramento State 17.8 · Fresno State 38.8
Total
proj 56.6
Eastern Michigan @ Michigan StateMichigan State 84%
Model
Michigan State -14.3 · mkt Michigan State —
proj Eastern Michigan 19.2 · Michigan State 33.5
Total
proj 52.6
Jacksonville State @ OhioOhio 64%
Model
Ohio -5.0 · mkt Ohio —
proj Jacksonville State 25.1 · Ohio 30.1
Total
proj 55.1
Buffalo @ Florida InternationalFlorida International 57%
Model
Florida International -2.4 · mkt Florida International —
proj Buffalo 24.4 · Florida International 26.8
Total
proj 51.2
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.