CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 3 · Mid-American · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Mid-American · Week 3 · 12 games
Kent State @ Ohio StateOhio State 100%
Model
Ohio State -47.7 · mkt Ohio State —
proj Kent State 6.4 · Ohio State 54.1
Total
proj 60.5
Buffalo @ Penn StatePenn State 99%
Model
Penn State -34.8 · mkt Penn State —
proj Buffalo 9.5 · Penn State 44.4
Total
proj 53.9
Akron @ MinnesotaMinnesota 93%
Model
Minnesota -21.3 · mkt Minnesota —
proj Akron 17.3 · Minnesota 38.6
Total
proj 55.9
Bowling Green @ Iowa StateIowa State 93%
Model
Iowa State -20.5 · mkt Iowa State —
proj Bowling Green 16.8 · Iowa State 37.3
Total
proj 54.1
Temple @ ToledoToledo 90%
Model
Toledo -18.2 · mkt Toledo —
proj Temple 22.4 · Toledo 40.6
Total
proj 63.0
Eastern Michigan @ WisconsinWisconsin 86%
Model
Wisconsin -15.6 · mkt Wisconsin —
proj Eastern Michigan 18.1 · Wisconsin 33.7
Total
proj 51.8
Ball State @ LibertyLiberty 85%
Model
Liberty -14.9 · mkt Liberty —
proj Ball State 18.3 · Liberty 33.2
Total
proj 51.5
Miami (OH) @ CincinnatiCincinnati 74%
Model
Cincinnati -9.1 · mkt Cincinnati —
proj Miami (OH) 21.9 · Cincinnati 31.0
Total
proj 52.9
North Dakota State @ Sacramento StateSacramento State 67%
Model
Sacramento State -6.3 · mkt Sacramento State —
proj North Dakota State 23.1 · Sacramento State 29.4
Total
proj 52.5
Wyoming @ Central MichiganCentral Michigan 64%
Model
Central Michigan -4.9 · mkt Central Michigan —
proj Wyoming 24.3 · Central Michigan 29.3
Total
proj 53.6
Ohio @ South AlabamaOhio 65%
Model
Ohio -5.6 · mkt Ohio —
proj Ohio 29.5 · South Alabama 23.9
Total
proj 53.4
Western Michigan @ RiceWestern Michigan 72%
Model
Western Michigan -8.4 · mkt Western Michigan —
proj Western Michigan 32.4 · Rice 24.0
Total
proj 56.4
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.